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Questionable Trades Could Hamper ChiSox

By Daniel Rathman | March 7th, 2007

The White Sox entered this offseason with one major issue: the state of their starting rotation. After looking like aces during the Southsiders’ 2005 championship run, Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle saw their ERAs grow by more than a run to 4.51 and 4.99, respectively. Manager Ozzie Guillen was not shy about sharing his displeasure about the starting staff with the media, and the outspoken, emotional skipper clearly expects his rotation to rebound with a strong 2007 campaign. But ChiSox GM Kenny Williams’ main transactions this winter did not reflect much concern about the starting rotation. In fact, Williams’ decision to trade veteran Freddy Garcia and top-prospect Brandon McCarthy to the Phillies and Rangers, respectively, may have made the staff worse.

Here are the key statistics for the White Sox primary 5 starters from 2006:

• Buehrle: (12-13)/4.99ERA/1.45WHIP/.305BAA
• Garland: (18-7)/4.51ERA/1.36WHIP/.294BAA
• Vazquez: (11-12)/4.84ERA/1.29WHIP/.259BAA
• Contreras: (13-9)/4.27ERA/1.27WHIP/.256BAA
• Garcia: (17-9)/4.53ERA/1.28WHIP/.267BAA

Translation: the rotation wasn’t all that terrible on the outside, but there were plenty of concerns, and a deeper look reveals some brutal numbers. Take a look at these trouble signs…

Buehrle (it gets worse…):

• 247 hits allowed in 204 innings pitched (10.89 hits/9 innings)
• 36 homeruns allowed (1.59HR/9)
• Vs. RH-hitters: .322BAA, 1.56WHIP
• Away: 5.51ERA/1.58WHIP/.333BAA
• Post-ASB: 6.44ERA/1.64WHIP/.343BAA

Garland (he won 18 games, but…):

• 247 hits allowed in 211.1 innings pitched (10.35H/9)
• Monthly ERAs: 7.11, 5.40, 4.50, 2.89, 2.89, 4.70
• If you think that’s inconsistent, watch this…

Vazquez (worth his new extension?):

• Monthly ERAs: 3.67, 3.99, 7.50, 6.82, 3.41, 3.82, 7.71
• Monthly WHIPs: 0.93, 1.23, 1.77, 1.55, 1.27, 0.99, 1.27
• Monthly BAAs: .211, .243, .338, .297, .239, .197, .364
• Scary to think Javier Vazquez was the ChiSox 2nd-best starter last year…

Contreras (rapid decline?):

• Post-ASB: 5.40ERA/1.38WHIP/.279BAA
• Similar month-to-month inconsistency

Garcia (now the Phillies’ ace):

• Away: 5.05ERA/1.30WHIP/.282BAA
• 32 homeruns allowed in 216.1 innings (1.33HR/9)

Clearly, that’s not an adequate starting-5 for a team looking to defend a World Series crown. And so, despite one of the League’s most potent lineups, the ChiSox failed to make the playoffs, finishing third in the AL Central division, behind the fast-improving Twins and Tigers. Interestingly enough, it was tremendously consistent starting pitching that paved the way to the postseason for Minnesota and Detroit — the exact opposite of what the ChiSox rotation gave them.

The aforementioned deals consummated by GM Kenny Williams this offseason were, as I mentioned, meant to shake-up the starting rotation. However, the staff is worse now — at least in the short-term — than it was at the end of last season. How’s that? Well…

The first deal made by Williams sent Freddy Garcia to the Phillies, for northpaw prospect Gavin Floyd, who has been inconsistent in the Majors thus far. In 24 career appearances (19 starts), the 24 year-old has a 7-5 record with a 6.96ERA and 1.74WHIP. Over his minor league career, which began in 2001 when he was Philadelphia’s top pick (4th overall), Floyd has compiled a 38-40 record with a 3.77ERA and 1.30WHIP, over 117 appearances (112 starts). Clearly, Floyd is not the blue-chip prospect he was once considered to be, and Garcia was a steep price to pay for an unproven starter.

But even if the Garcia-for-Floyd (and ex-ChiSock Gio Gonzalez) deal made sense, trading promising righty Brandon McCarthy to Texas for prospects certainly did not. McCarthy appeared to be a shoo-in for the 5th-starter job this season, after posting a 4-7 record with a 4.68ERA last year, working primarily out of the bullpen. But after the acquisition of Floyd, Williams sent him packing for Rangers’ top-prospect John Danks, and 2 lower-level pitchers. Why? No one seems to have a clear answer. McCarthy was stunned by the decision — enough so that he ripped the organization. Ozzie fired back. And still, we have no clue exactly what Kenny Williams was thinking when he made the deal.

The bottom line is, however, that the White Sox starting rotation has plenty of questions heading into this season; questions that the Tigers, Twins, and Indians do not have. As we saw in 2006, even a powerful offense featuring Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Joe Crede could not lead the Southsiders’ to the playoffs because of their erratic starting pitching. The 2007 edition of the White Sox sports a starting rotation that has the potential to be worse than the 2006 version was.

A bounce-back season from Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle will be crucial to the White Sox playoff hopes this season. If they pitch well in 2007, the ChiSox may have a legitimate shot at re-capturing the division title. If they don’t, Ozzie Guillen will be making faces again come October.

And while it’s Ozzie Guillen who might find himself on thin ice should the White Sox fail to make the playoffs in 2007, Kenny Williams’ controversial swaps will likely be the true culprit.